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, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- A new study by Stanford University
scholars Jon Krosnick and Neil Malhotra shows that despite most Americans'
recognizing that smoking can lead to life-threatening diseases, they don't
understand how much that risk increases.

The cause, the two researchers assumed, lies in the misperception of the

Published in PLOS ONE, the study analyzed data from survey interviews of more
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smokers and non-smokers, about the prospects of developing lung cancer.

In some previous studies, researchers had asked survey respondents to report
how likely they thought it is that smokers and non-smokers will develop lung
cancer. If a respondent thought smokers had a 30 percent chance of developing
lung cancer and non-smokers a 10 percent chance, that person thinks that smokers
are 20 percentage points more likely to develop cancer.

In the new study Adidas
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some people might not be thinking about risk that way. Instead, they proposed,
people might perceive risk as the ratio of the two numbers, like answering the
question, "How many times more likely to get lung cancer is a smoker than a
non-smoker?" This ratio is called the "relative risk." In the 30 percent vs. 10
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three times more likely to develop lung cancer.

This seemingly small change in analytic approach has big consequences: most
Americans overestimate the difference between the two rates of lung cancer,
namely the risk of smoking, but the vast majority underestimate the relative
risk. In essence, they are underestimating how much more likely it is for a
smoker to develop lung cancer than a non-smoker.

The researchers did find that people who perceived more relative risk were
less likely to start and more likely to quit smoking and those who perceived
more of a difference between the two cancer rates were no more or less likely to
start or stop smoking.

Therefore, Krosnick ,
a professor of communication and political science at Stanford, and Malhotra, a
professor of political economy in the Graduate School of Business, suggested
that if people naturally think about such dangers in terms of a ratio, then
perhaps rates of smoking would be reduced if Americans are properly
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